The cease-fire that ended eight days of bombing and airstrikes between Hamas and Israel should allow Israelis and Palestinians in Gaza to return to some normalcy as the two sides pull back from a violent cycle that killed 140 Palestinians and five Israelis in the past week. But even if it holds — and that is a big if — this moment of calm will not create real stability if it is not followed by a serious new peace effort aimed at a two-state solution.
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Under the terms of the cease-fire, the Palestinian factions in Gaza are to stop all assaults against Israel, including rocket attacks along the border. It was unclear whether the deal included any measures to end arms smuggling into Gaza through tunnels from Egypt, but that would be crucial so that Hamas cannot restock the weapons it has used against Israelis.
For its part, Israel agreed to stop all assaults on Gaza, including the "targeting of individuals." The agreement also states that Gaza's grievances, particularly the border controls imposed by Israel that block the free movement of people and goods, will be addressed in talks starting 24 hours after the cease-fire begins. But how these grievances will be addressed was also unclear.
After the announcement of the cease-fire by Egypt and the United States, Israel boasted of its war gains, including assassinating a top Hamas leader and striking 1,500 other targets, among them advanced missiles provided by Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said he supported giving the cease-fire a chance to calm the situation, but he also left open the possibility of "more severe military action" — presumably a ground invasion — if the rocket attacks from Gaza were to resume.
While Hamas was at the center of the agreement, the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, whose Fatah movement is Hamas's rival and whom the West has counted on as the moderate partner in any peace agreement, was on the sidelines. It is getting harder to see how he can muster the leadership required to unite Hamas with Fatah in the pursuit of any comprehensive long-term peace deal with Israel.
There is much to admire in the way President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt helped broker the deal, which required balancing an uneasy relationship with Israel and his sympathy for Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Of course, he had much to lose if he did not play a constructive role; the United States and its allies, which consider Hamas a terrorist organization, could certainly withhold the international financing he needs to rebuild his country if he refused to bring Hamas to the table. He also has an incentive to protect Egypt's three-decade-old peace treaty with Israel. Persuading Hamas to uphold its bargain will further test the new Egyptian leader.
It was encouraging that President Obama, after two years of ignoring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, plunged into peacemaking in a serious way. Even more encouraging was the White House commitment to seeking a "more durable solution to this problem."
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