Let's assume that President Obama and the Democrats sincerely want an immigration bill, that this is not a trick to trap Republicans into an anti-immigrant vote that will alienate Hispanic voters and secure Democratic advantage for a generation.
The Senate seems to be hospitable territory. Four Republicans — including the ascendant Marco Rubio — have joined four Democrats in embracing the politically difficult principles at the heart of the matter. Some advocates of immigration reform talk confidently of mustering 70 Senate votes, which would represent an astonishing reversal of fortunes for an issue that has long been mired in demagogy.
The House, where many Republicans fear getting creamed by Tea Party challengers in a primary next year, is more problematic. The fear is that the House will balk or will break immigration into little pieces, pass the parts that crack down on undocumented workers and kill any effort to legalize the 11 million already here.
That pessimism is natural; the House is the place where ideas go to die. But it needn't happen this time. If President Obama and Congressional leaders play their cards right, as they are doing so far, immigration reform — real immigration reform — can clear Congress this year.
Selling the measure to the Republican House will require close attention to substance, marketing and legislative tactics.
For starters, advocates won't be using the word "amnesty." Personally I think it's a fine word, which has traditionally meant an act of forgiveness for the sake of social harmony. But in the meanspirited Republican/Fox News lexicon, "amnesty" has come to mean coddling criminals. So we will all talk of "a path to citizenship."
The last major immigration law, signed by President Ronald Reagan in 1986, legalized three million undocumented immigrants. (Reagan, by the way, was comfortable calling this "amnesty.") But the law failed to prevent a new illegal influx, largely because business lobbied to prevent tough sanctions on employers who hired unauthorized workers. The lure of no-questions-asked jobs drew millions of new illegal immigrants, and that invasion fed a ferocious popular backlash.
This time around, Democrats should be at least as ardent about enforcement as they are about legalization of the undocumented. That is essential to winning Republican votes, but it is also the way to avoid a future cycle of anti-immigrant populism.
In truth, most of what you hear from Republicans about "securing our borders" is a red herring. That is not the real problem. Under Obama, border policing has doubled, and deportations have ballooned to 400,000 a year — with a new and prudent emphasis on deporting convicted criminals. The Migration Policy Institute reported in January that the government now spends more on immigration enforcement — nearly $18 billion a year — than on the F.B.I., the Secret Service, the Drug Enforcement Administration and all the other federal law enforcement agencies combined. Partly because of stronger enforcement — but also because of lower birthrates and healthier economies south of our border — the net flow of migrants from Mexico is actually zero, or even negative, according to a recent analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center. It should be easy for Obama to endorse strong language on border protection, because he's already doing it.
The real weakness is internal enforcement. There is an electronic system to verify that businesses hire only workers who are legally entitled to be here, but 90 percent of employers don't use it. Both Obama and the Senate "Gang of Eight" call for more rigorous checks on employment, including a forgery-proof, theft-proof identification system, which is overdue.
Businesses are not crazy about tougher policing of their payrolls, but they have mostly resigned themselves to the idea. And the immigration bill is certain to include some enticing compensation: for the tech sector, more visas to attract educated specialists; for the agriculture sector, an expanded program of temporary labor, which the Chamber of Commerce is negotiating with the A.F.L.-C.I.O.
As for legalization, much of the debate has raged around the question of how easy it is for the undocumented to get the sweet prize of citizenship. Simply bestowing green cards on the millions seems unfair to those who have played by the rules, and sends a bad signal to others tempted to cheat. The bill now being hatched is likely to create a short path to citizenship for children, who are here through no fault of their own, and a more arduous path for adults. Grown-ups who came here by sneaking across the border or overstaying a temporary visa will have to register, submit to a background check, pay taxes and penalties, and then wait their turn behind those who applied legally.
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