The employment report released on Friday showed some economic resilience. Job growth for March was revised upward to 138,000 new jobs, while the tally for April, at 165,000 jobs, was stronger still.
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But both tallies represent a big drop from February, which showed a healthy gain of 332,000 jobs. One interpretation is that the sequester-induced economic headwinds that began in March are hurting job growth, which might otherwise have taken off this year. Seen in that light, the April report portends elevated joblessness and low wages for at least as long as the sequester lasts, and possibly longer, depending on the extent of the economic damage from the self-inflicted austerity.
At the average pace of job growth this year, it would take more than five years to return to the prerecession unemployment rate of 5 percent. It is doubtful that even the current pace can be sustained. The length of the average workweek dropped in April, to 34.4 hours, a sign that there is less work in the economy. That measure very likely overstates the demand for workers, because it includes only private-sector workers and does not capture the reduction in work hours for government workers furloughed because of the sequester. Another sign of weak labor demand is the increase in April, by 278,000, of the number of part-time workers who want full-time work.
New jobs are being added in low-wage fields typically filled by women — in restaurants and bars, retailers, temporary help services and home health care. In manufacturing and construction, typically higher-paying jobs filled by men, there was either no job growth or job losses. The biggest losses were in generally stable and decent-paying government jobs, with 11,000 positions shed in April, a chunk of them related to the sequester. Over all, the numbers suggest continued deep strains on families, even those whose breadwinners are employed.
For the 11.7 million who are unemployed — and especially the 4.4 million who have been out of work for more than six months — the picture is even bleaker. So far, 18 states have made cuts under the sequester to federal unemployment benefits, taking $39 a week on average from the typical benefit of about $300. That hurts those directly affected, but it also reduces demand in the economy. The likely result from these and other sequester cuts is job and wage stagnation.
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