The news that BlackBerry is considering selling itself is a good reminder of the impermanence of technological dominance. Not too long ago, the thought that the company would be forced to even consider such a step would have struck financial analysts and consumers as outlandish — as outlandish, say, as the idea that people might stop using Google or Facebook.
BlackBerry commanded nearly 20 percent of the global smartphone market as recently as 2009; it accounted for just 2.7 percent in the second quarter of this year. I bought my first BlackBerry in 2005 and owned the company's devices for a good seven years, buying three more. It seemed impossible that any other device could come close to matching the utility of a BlackBerry, let alone that any would surpass it. It gave me dependable wireless access to my e-mail messages, and its keypad was easy to type on.
I eventually did give up my BlackBerry and switched to Apple's iPhone, with its larger screen and tempting array of apps, though I still miss the BlackBerry's keypad. Eight months ago, I bought my second iPhone, and can't imagine switching to another brand.
But do I really have reason to be so certain? If nothing else, the challenges facing BlackBerry show just how quickly popular electronic devices can fade. Remember the Palm Pilot? I had one years ago, and considered it such a marvel that I expected to have one for a long time.
It should come as no surprise that companies and products are overtaken by others in a competitive economy. What's harder to appreciate is how we become convinced of the longevity of devices or businesses, especially those that have an aura of indispensability about them. I may be lost without my iPhone today, but a few years from now I might replace it with a pair of glasses that will do everything my phone can and more. By then I won't be able to imagine life without my new digital eyes.
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