After more than a decade of fruitless talks to lower trade barriers, officials from more than 150 countries are back at the negotiating table. This time, they are hoping to reach a much more modest agreement by the end of the year that could provide a needed economic boost to the global economy.
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The negotiations among members of the World Trade Organization have broken down many times since they began in 2001. The talks, known as the Doha Round, have been stymied largely because of disagreements between industrialized economies like the United States and the European Union on the one hand and developing countries like China and India on the other over which nations need to do more to open their markets to foreign competition.
But this time a deal seems possible because it does not include politically sensitive, big-ticket issues like reducing trade barriers on food or industrial goods. The agreement under discussion focuses instead on easing the flow of all goods across borders by requiring streamlined customs procedures and improved transportation.
The benefits of making it easier to get goods through customs may seem like small potatoes. But the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that even these modest improvements could cut the cost of trade by 10 percent in the United States, Europe and other industrialized markets, and as much as 15.5 percent in developing countries like Brazil and South Africa. A 1 percent reduction in total global costs would boost incomes by $40 billion worldwide.
The new leader of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo of Brazil, who is well respected by both developed and developing countries, has injected fresh energy into the talks. He is pushing countries to reach a deal by the time trade ministers meet in early December on the Indonesian island of Bali.
Hard bargaining lies ahead. Some countries like India want to change existing W.T.O. rules that govern how much food governments can stockpile. Those regulations are meant to prevent countries from driving up prices or restricting imports. (New Delhi recently enacted a law that commits the government to provide more discounted wheat and rice to a majority of its population.) Other countries, including many in Africa, are worried that they will not be able to pay for improvements to their customs and trade infrastructure without external assistance.
But these should not be insurmountable obstacles. Leaders can make a deal by December if they have the political will to do so. But if they are unable to reach an agreement on something so modest yet so clearly beneficial to international commerce, any global trade deal at all might be impossible. That would be a disheartening, if not disastrous, conclusion to 12 years of negotiations, and it would send a terrible message about the future of international cooperation on other issues like global warming.
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