The interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers is an important step toward resolving the increasingly dangerous dispute over Iran's progress on production of a nuclear weapon. President Obama and President Hassan Rouhani of Iran deserve credit for resisting fierce domestic opposition and a 30-year history of animosity between the two countries to get to this point.
Even though the temporary agreement does not achieve permanent and total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, no one can seriously argue that it doesn't make the world safer. It would freeze key aspects of Iran's program for six months and lay the ground for negotiating a comprehensive, permanent deal. The alternatives are ratcheting up sanctions and possible military action, with no assurance that those steps would stop Iran's nuclear advances. A negotiated solution is unquestionably better; it is alarming to hear Israeli politicians reject it in extremist terms and threaten unspecified unilateral action.
The deal buys time to work on a long-term solution that constrains Iran's nuclear program and guarantees that it is put to peaceful use. That will be even harder to achieve, and the risks will be even greater, if negotiations fail. It is crucial that talks on the next phase begin very soon since the next six months will fly by.
As with any deal between adversaries, caution is warranted. Iran kept the nuclear program secret for nearly two decades before it was uncovered in 2002 and has resisted full disclosure of its activities. But the interim deal has protections that should make cheating harder, including unprecedented daily inspections of enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordo by United Nations experts.
Iran has agreed to stop enriching uranium beyond 5 percent, a level sufficient for energy production but not bomb-making, and will dismantle links between networks of centrifuges. While Iran can still enrich below 5 percent, it must convert new enriched uranium to oxide so it is harder to use militarily. Its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent, which is close to weapons-grade, would be diluted or converted into oxide. Iran agreed not to install new centrifuges, start up ones not already operating or build new enrichment facilities. Much of the work on the plutonium reactor near Arak, which could provide a second path to a bomb, would be halted. The two sides effectively put aside the question of whether Iran has a "right" to enrich, but that will be central to any final deal.
In exchange, America and its allies have offered "limited, temporary and reversible" sanctions relief — enough so President Rouhani can show his people benefits for Iran's concessions but far from all that Iran has lost. The interim deal would provide $6 billion to $7 billion in sanctions relief, including freeing up about $4.2 billion in oil revenue that is frozen in foreign banks.
Even so, Iran would still be deprived of $30 billion in oil revenue over the next six months. American officials say that if Iran cheats on the interim terms or fails to reach a final agreement, the eased sanctions will be reversed and new and tougher ones imposed.
The perils ahead are many, including adamant objections from Israel and Saudi Arabia, which oppose re-establishment of relations between America and Iran. The major powers have promised Iran that new sanctions will not be imposed during the interim deal. But key Senate Democrats said they plan to push for new penalties, though those would probably not be effective for six months to give diplomacy a chance. That is not a lot of time, but the new agreement offers more hope than ever before that the United States and Iran can find common ground.
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