It is difficult to sympathize in any way with Ukraine's corrupt and cynical president, Viktor Yanukovich, but the choice before him was indeed nasty. To sign an association and free-trade agreement with the European Union was to invite brutal Russian economic punishment, which Ukraine's badly suffering economy is in no shape to absorb. Europe could only offer medium- to long-term advantages. Not signing, however, inevitably meant protests in Ukraine, whose population has consistently expressed support for European integration. Sure enough, tens of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets as soon as their government announced last week that it was suspending negotiations with the European Union.
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Thus has Russia won the tug of war over Ukraine. Or has it? Not if Russia's goal is to find its place in the democratic and civilized world, as it proclaimed it wanted when it overthrew Communist rule 22 years ago.
The Kremlin's strong-arm tactics against Ukraine and other former republics seeking closer ties with Europe may be popular with those of President Vladimir Putin's countrymen who still rankle at the loss of empire, but they strongly reinforce the image of Mr. Putin as an unreconstructed cold warrior who will stop at nothing to retain influence over what Moscow calls the "near abroad."
His government has said, disingenuously, that talks with the European Union can continue, with Russia's participation. But Mr. Putin's real objective is to bring Ukraine and several other former Soviet republics into a customs union, and then into a Eurasian Union, with Moscow. The Kremlin portrays this as an alternative to the European Union, but it is not. The European Union is a voluntary partnership based on shared democratic values and economic rules. Mr. Putin's Eurasian Union would be a coerced association with no standards of behavior except for fealty to Moscow.
Mr. Yanukovich is an unsavory leader, a fact he has displayed in his refusal to release his rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, from her blatantly political incarceration. Europe had made Ms. Tymoshenko's release an unofficial condition for any agreement, but as Mr. Yanukovich backed away from the deal, his party in Parliament voted down several bills that would have set Ms. Tymoshenko free.
At the summit meeting this week in Vilnius, Lithuania, the European Union should make absolutely clear that its doors remain open to Ukraine. The association agreement is negotiated and ready for signing any time Mr. Yanukovich or his successor finds the courage to defy Russia. And until then, Europe should seek ways of easing Ukraine's severe economic tribulations. That would show that it does not play by Moscow rules, and that moving Westward need not carry an unbearable price tag.
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