What's going on with John Boehner, the speaker of the House?
On Dec. 12, Boehner broke with hard-line conservative groups, accusing them of "misleading their followers" and charging that "they have lost all credibility." It was evident from the context that Boehner was referring to right-wing powerhouses like Freedom Works, Heritage Action and the Club for Growth.
At a news conference a week earlier, on Dec. 5, Boehner declared that if the president "has a plan for extending unemployment benefits I'd truly entertain taking a look at it."
More strikingly, Boehner has signaled that he now supports incremental immigration reform. He recently hired Rebecca Tallent, a former chief of staff for Senator John McCain, a strong backer of immigration reform, and he has encouraged aides to tell reporters that he is prepared to challenge the anti-immigration wing of his party.
There are several theories about Boehner's unexpected turn.
One explanation sees Boehner and centrist Republicans generally backing away from some of their more controversial stands in preparation for the 2014 election. Steve Rosenthal, the political director of the AFL-CIO from 1995 to 2002 and now president of the Organizing Group, a Democratic political consulting firm, noted in an email exchange:
"The ground is shifting on a whole range of issues, and the Republicans know that their hard-liners are way out of step with America. Some of these issues – extending unemployment benefits, increasing the minimum wage – are values issues as much as economic ones. That is, they tell voters whose side a candidate is on."
Boehner, who has primary responsibility for retaining the Republican majority in the House, is less cowed by the Tea Party forces both within his caucus and out in the states. David Brady, a political scientist at Stanford and deputy director of the Hoover Institution, said in an email: "Tea Party threats to run their candidates against incumbents voting against them have lost credibility."
In close contests, the long-term unemployed, along with their families and their friends, have the power to determine the outcome in those 2014 elections in which a percentage point gained or lost can be decisive. On Dec. 28 Congress allowed unemployment benefits to expire for an estimated 1.3 million out of work men and women. A vote against restoring the benefits would create "a political vulnerability," said John Feehery, a public relations executive who was once a top aide to Dennis Hastert, the former House speaker. "A lot of those folks on unemployment are swing voters. They dislike Obama but will vote their economic interests if they have to."
Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory, agreed:
"I have to assume that if they are willing to consider extending unemployment benefits, it's because they don't want to hand Democrats a potentially damaging issue in the midterm elections. They certainly know that this has the support of a large majority of voters including a lot of Republican voters. And Democrats are going to try to use this issue along with raising the minimum wage to try to offset the political fallout from the rollout of Obamacare."
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, surveyed voters in four competitive congressional districts currently held by Republican, as well as in Boehner's own district. The results showed that strong majorities back extension of unemployment benefits. Support for restoring benefits ranged from 63 to 68 percent in the five districts; Republicans approved of the idea by a 53.4-41.6 margin. The survey was informative, even though it was designed to poke a stick in Boehner's eye.
There is another clear reason for Boehner's shift towards the center: the economy has begun to improve. In Ben Bernanke's words, "The combination of financial healing, greater balance in the housing market, less fiscal restraint, and, of course, continued monetary policy accommodation bodes well for U.S. economic growth in coming quarters."
Why would an improving economy encourage John Boehner to be more receptive to extended unemployment benefits and liberalized immigration policies – and courageous enough to stiff-arm his party's right wing?
To answer that question requires a look at how favorable and unfavorable trends in the economy influence the political views of the electorate.
In recent columns, I have reported on studies demonstrating that conservatism often gains strength in downturns and that hard times tend to push the electorate to the right.
There are those who dispute these trends, citing the sharp turn to the left during the 1930s. Steven Pinker, a professor of psychology at Harvard, wrote in response to my question about political responses to adversity:
"The Great Depression spawned five consecutive Democratic administrations, the first unprecedentedly activist in expanding social welfare and government intervention in the economy. Communism in the U.S. was also probably at its peak in popularity."
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